Strategic Forecast 2020

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CWA # 227, 25 February 2020
Strategic Forecast 2020
Israel and the Middle East: The New Alliance Plans in 2020

  Prathiksha Ravi

CWA Brief, February 2020

The political parties in Israel have a similar stance on the issue of Palestinians and are likely to accept Trump's Peace Plan as long as territorial and political principles comply with ideology

Background

2019 marked a turbulent time in Israeli polity as it saw political parties incapable of forming a coalition due to the growing secular-religious divide between the right and the far-right factions.  The July-September Knesset Elections of 2019 showcased the emergence of the former Israeli military chief Benjamin “Benny” Gantz from the Blue and White party fighting the longest-serving Prime Minister, vying for his 5th term, Benjamin Netanyahu from the right-wing Likud party. With controversial election campaign promises and the coming of ‘Deal of the Century’, the Israeli elections have been closely monitored by the international community especially on how it may affect the volatile region. It is also to be noted that 2019 also saw Israel's Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit indicting the incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of corruption which he has categorically denied, calling it a ‘coup attempt’ against him by the judiciary, police and others. Both Netanyahu and Gantz have been meeting with the intention to form a unity government which has not been achieved. If unable to establish a coalition, the Likud and Blue and White leaders are likely to go into the third round of elections pitted against each other on 3 March, 2020.  

Major Trends in 2019

‘Make Israel Great Again’: Shift in US policy on Israel

The United States of America has maintained, even explicitly taken a pro-Israel stance under the current Trump administration, changing the decades-long policy of neutrality. In 2019 alone, the administration made two major shifts - recognising Israeli sovereignty over Israel occupied Syrian territory - Golan Heights and reversing its policy on the recognition of Israeli Jewish settlements in West Bank as ‘non-violation of international law’ thereby removing what has been a necessary barrier to the annexation of the occupied Palestinian territory. The White House has also formulated the ‘Middle East Peace Plan’ which according to the President and Jarod Kushner, his son-in-law, senior advisor and chief strategist of the plan, seeks to end the 70-year-old prolonged territorial conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. The economic part of the plan was released as per the two-day conference in Bahrain attended by billionaires, businessmen, investors, Middle East delegates and boycotted by the Palestinian authorities known as “Peace to Prosperity”. Kushner in the conference called for an economic settlement of the conflict through development initiatives in the occupied territories. Though the plan is yet to be released in its entirety, it is believed that the administration no longer looks at the two-state solution and has heavily leaned towards Israel on several contested territorial and political views. 

In an alternate scenario, the Democratic Party in charge of the House of Representatives in the United States of America have made certain major shifts in the U.S Middle East policy in the House by barring arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE citing their involvement in the Yemen war to the recent vote to push for a two-state solution on the Israeli-Palestine conflict after reports on the incumbent Prime Minister’s remarks on annexation major parts of the occupied territories of the Jordan Valley.  

Fighting the common enemy: Terrorism, Iran and the Israeli-Gulf alliance

During the second round of the legislative elections in September, Benjamin Netanyahu, as part of his election campaign vowed to annex a third of the occupied territory in West Bank in the Jordan Valley. Normally, a statement like that would have brought widespread condemnation and protests in the Arab world, but it hardly triggered a response. Not limited to 2019, there has been a significant shift in the Arab world in their stance against Israel in terms of the Palestine issue ranging from mild criticism on social media to chalking it down as an election trail campaign promise. The shift stems from varied reasons such as the US Trump Administration’s stance on the issue and focusing on the internal issues stemming from the outcomes of the Arab Spring and the War against the Islamic State. Many of the Gulf monarchies are primarily focused on the Iranian threat, a concern they share with Israel. An example is seen by the intense conflict that is occurring between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional dominance and which is fought through a series of proxy wars across the region. In October, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz put forth an initiative to advance a non-aggression deal with several Arab Gulf States namely members of the Gulf Cooperation Council which reiterated the stance made by the minister in his UN General Assembly speech in September calling for the normalization of relations with the Arab States. With the looming threat of Iran, the Gulf countries disillusioned with the protracted Palestinian conflict are shifting towards Israel as seen by the Arab League declaration of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation in 2016. To combat terrorism and the impending threat of Iran the ‘common enemy’, an Israel-Gulf alliance is no longer a distant dream.

Israel’s growing influence across Middle East  

With the repercussions of the Arab Spring and the impacts of the War against the Islamic State still felt strong across the region, Israel took advantage of the power vacuum to assert itself on various fronts in 2019. With the relative ‘peace’ in the Red Sea side, Israel furthered economic cooperation with Egypt and Jordan in January in terms of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum. In April, Israel confirmed its participation in the World Expo 2020 in the United Arab Emirates, involving Dubai to open diplomatic ties with Israel which states Israel’s rising status in the region. Israel has also been building strong relations between itself and Saudi Arabia over the years through its efforts against Iran in the proxy wars, especially in Yemen and Lebanon. The initiative of an Israeli-Gulf alliance shows the transformation of Israel as a middle power to a leading regional power in the Middle East playing a prominent role in the region. Israel has used the power vacuum to its advantage by projecting itself as a major regional power with the backing of Big Powers such as the United States of America on various political issues. In 2019, Israel has managed to get the US on its side regarding various territorial and political issues in connection with its occupied territories.  

Forecasts for 2020

A Post-Netanyahu Israel

The July-September Knesset Elections of 2019 was the stage of Israel’s internal turmoil with a fight for the throne situation between the longest-serving Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli military chief  Benjamin “Benny” Gantz. With a coalition unable to be formed by either party and with each other, it is hard to predict who will form the new government. Unable to establish a coalition, the Likud and Blue and White leaders are likely to go into the third round of elections pitted against each other. The election showdown between the right and the far-right is unlikely to change policy decisions but may end the reign of Benjamin ‘King Bibi’ Netanyahu as his popularity reduces in the face of the indictment made for corruption charges. Even if the Netanyahu-led Likud party is unable to form the government, the right-wing ideological dominance will continue to prevail in Israel. The Blue and White Leader Benjamin Gantz known as “the Prince” for rising through army ranks is no different than Netanyahu in terms of policy positions. Despite being called the beacon of hope for peace by the international community, taking a look at his policy positions during the campaign trail shows the usual rhetoric forwarded by the right-wing Israeli polity.  Both parties have a similar stance on the issue of Palestinians are likely to accept U.S Trump Administration’s Peace Plan as long as territorial and political principles comply with ideology. Relationship between US President Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu transcend into a personal level, thereby the question remains to be seen is whether there would be similar U.S endorsements of Israeli policies under Benjamin Gantz or any other new ruler?

Trump’s “Middle East Peace Deal: A step towards ‘One-State Israel’

The White House formulated ‘Middle East Peace Plan’ which sought to end the 70-year-old prolonged territorial conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. Though the details are guarded, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the chief strategist of the Peace Plan has rejected the ‘two-state solution’ as a part of the Peace Plan. In the “Peace to Prosperity” conference in Bahrain, he called for an economic ‘settlement’ to the issue by calling for investments of over US$ 50 billion in furtherance of development in the contested territories for a period of 10 years. The Conference was not only boycotted by the Palestinian authorities, they have also refused to engage with the White House since 2017. With the endorsement of several unilateral steps of Israel by Trump Administration especially in terms of the disputed territories, the Middle East Peace Deal in all likelihood will be pro-Israel. It could also push towards a One-State Israel plan while giving autonomy to Palestinians rather than a full-fledged state. 

 Coming of the “New Middle East”

Israel’s nineth President, Shimon Peres has long called for a ‘New Peaceful Middle East’ with Israel at the helm of its affairs. This might soon be a reality, albeit without the peaceful part. Israel has taken advantage of the power vacuum in the region to assert itself in various fields. It has been projecting itself as a major regional power while receiving the backing for various unilateral steps taken by it from the US Trump Administration in recent times. The brazenness of Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection campaign promises of annexation and hardly any outrage from the Arab world shows the barrier that stood between the possibilities of Arab-Israeli alliance is faltering. Strategic shifts in the Middle East have pushed the Palestinian cause down in the list of priorities of many Arab leaders and peoples. The initiative of a non-aggression deal with several Arab Gulf States namely members of the Gulf Cooperation Council led by Saudi Arabia show a possible rapprochement of the strained relations in the region. Stemming from a mutual hatred of Iran and love for the Trump administration between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the two States have been propagating the message of regional cooperation. With the much needed U.S backing, there is now a possibility of the coming of the ‘New Middle East’ with Israel in the driver’s seat.  

The impact of 2020 US Presidential Election on Israel

The 2020 US Presidential elections will have an adverse outcome on Israel if a Democratic candidate comes into power. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have stood at opposing ends of the hallway in terms of Israel and its policies. The Democratic party have already shown signs of possible major shifts in the U.S Middle East policy in the House of Representatives in terms of barring arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE over their involvement in the Yemen war to the recent vote to push for a two-state solution on the Israeli-Palestine conflict after reports on the incumbent Prime Minister’s remarks on annexation major parts of the occupied territories of the Jordan Valley.  Democratic candidate and prime front runner Joe Biden stands behind the U.S backing of Israel and though he supports the two-state system, in theory, he is more aligned towards the Israeli cause. As a stark contrast within the party itself, Bernie Sanders, the most outspoken and progressive candidate of the Democrats, has called for a two-state solution with the ending of Israeli use of force and violations of international. 

Thus, in the case of a democratic candidate being elected as the new President, we could see a reversal of the endorsements made by the Trump administration on the unilateral actions conducted by Israel. 

References

  1. Specia, M. (2019, September 18). Netanyahu Is in Trouble, and Other Takeaways From the Israeli Election. Retrieved November 29, 2019, from https://nyti.ms/36gwUDg
  2. Heller, J. (2019, December 9). Israeli parties agree on March 2 election if no government formed: The Guardian. Retrieved December 9, 2019, from http://bit.ly/38rI8qk
  3. Hassan, Z., Yerkes, S., Farouk, Y., Dunne, M., Muasher, M., Fakir, I., ... Walles, J. (2019, June 24).
  4. Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan Is in the Works. What Does the Region Think? Retrieved November 19, 2019, from http://bit.ly/2RGD7Ev
  5. Mizrahi-Arnaud, Y.M.A. (2019, July 9). Neither Peace nor Prosperity: Jared Kushner’s Middle East Peace Plan Falls Flat in Bahrain. Retrieved December 1, 2019, from http://bit.ly/2E5l02N 
  6. Golan Heights: Trump signs order recognising occupied area as Israeli. (2019, March 25). Retrieved November 24, 2019, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47697717
  7. Jakes, L., & David. (2019, November 18). In Shift, U.S. Says Israeli Settlements in West Bank Do Not Violate International Law. Retrieved November 25, 2019, from https://nyti.ms/36mY37i
  8. Beck, M. (2019, November 8). Israel and the Arab Gulf: An Israeli-Saudi Alliance in the Making? Retrieved November 12, 2019, from http://bit.ly/2Ly2mVD
  9. Ahren, R., & Staff, T. O. I. (2019, October 6). FM confirms initiative to sign ‘historic’ non-aggression pact with Arab states. Retrieved November 13, 2019, from http://bit.ly/2PK7vv5
  10. FM Katz addresses the General Assembly of the UN at the 74th Session. (2019, September 26). Retrieved November 28, 2019, from http://bit.ly/38nKDd6
  11. Ettachfini, L. (2019, September 25). 2020 Democratic Candidates Are Slowly Moving Left on Palestine and Israel. Retrieved December 1, 2019, from http://bit.ly/2Pot5oE
  12. Stevenson, P. (2019, July 26). East Med Gas Forum Launched. Retrieved December 29, 2019, from http://bit.ly/38qjgzb
  13. Stevenson, P. (2019, July 26). East Med Gas Forum Launched. Retrieved December 29, 2019, from http://bit.ly/38qjgzb
  14. Halbfinger, D. M. (2019, November 4). With Israel in Limbo, Benny Gantz Vows to Seek a ‘Peace Within’. Retrieved November 27, 2019, from https://nyti.ms/2YxkmVk
  15. Heller, A. (2019, November 11). Israel says Expo 2020 in Dubai is a bridge to Arab world. Retrieved December 2, 2019, from https://apnews.com/6826851cea0742b4982995afadedc84d

Prathiksha Ravi is pursuing her Masters in International Studies from Stella Maris College, Chennai 

This essay was published at the NIAS Quarterly on Contemporary World Affairs, Vol 2, Issue 1, January-March 2020  

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